Backward Induced Probability Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper describes how to specify probability models for data analysis via a backward induction procedure. The new approach yields coherent, priorfree uncertainty assessment. The backward induction approach is first demonstrated on two familiar models — the Bernoulli distribution and the Gaussian distribution — to compare the resulting specifications to their standard counterparts arising as Bayesian posterior distributions. The new approach is then applied to a kernel density estimator, which leads to a novel method for computing point-wise credible intervals in nonparametric density estimation.
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